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Analysis on Causes and Prediction Deviation of the “8·21” Heavy Rain in Northern and Central Part of Shaanxi Province
ZHAO Qiang, WANG Nan, CHEN Xiaoting, GAO Xingxing
Journal of Arid Meteorology
2020, 38 (4):
559-568.
Based on conventional sounding observation data, ground encryption observation data and EC-interim reanalysis data with high resolution (0.25°×0.25°), the rainstorm process in northern and central part of Shaanxi Province during August 21-22, 2018 was comprehensively analyzed. The precipitation forecast based on the model was tested, and comparison of circulation conditions, water vapor conditions, energy conditions and instability mechanism of the heavy rainfall in the northern Shaanxi and the western part of the Guanzhong plain was focused on. The results show that cold air brought by the plateau trough and warm air brought by the subtropical high met in the central part of Shaanxi, which provided a favorable circulation background for the heavy rainfall. The shear line on 700 hPa provided a dynamic uplift condition for rainfall. The northwest cold front in the Hexi Corridor moved southward. The stable precipitation behind the cold front dominated in the northern Shaanxi, while the convective precipitation triggered by the cold front dominated in Guanzhong area. During the rainstorm, the water vapor transport was weak, the local water vapor content was high, and the vertical gradient of humidity in western part of the Guanzhong plain was large, which was conducive to enhancement of convection and increase of rainfall intensity. Before the rainstorm, there were obvious convective instability in the middle and lower layers in western and central part of the Guanzhong plain and the convective effective potential energy (CAPE) was larger. Weak cold air triggered release of unstable energy in the Guanzhong plain and produced further convective rainstorm. However, there was a neutral stratification with weak unstable energy in northern Shaanxi. Conditionally symmetrical instability in the middle and lower layers resulted in strong oblique updraft, heavy rain and rainstorm. The frontogenesis of cold and warm air intersection in the Guanzhong plain was the triggering mechanism of convective rainstorm in this area. For large-scale precipitation, the forecast based on the model was stronger, but for convective precipitation, the forecast based on the model was weaker.
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